It is getting to that time again when we look forward to TV programmes ending five minutes early, an increase in leaflet-shaped paper recyclables, the relative serenity of purdah, then finally engaging in the process of exchanging one band of miscreants for the next.
Yes, the next General Election is likely but a year away. The polls, and the overall mood of the nation, suggest it will be the most significant GE in a generation as it looks as though there will be a change to the party in government. Recent by-elections (at the time of writing) imply that the Labour Party will be forming a majority government, ending what would be fourteen years of Conservative rule.
This significant swing could have a major impact in Harwich. The constituency, since being reduced to a single MP ahead of the 1868 election, has returned a Conservative MP (in various guises – taking the National Liberals to be their surrogate where applicable) all but six times, and before 1997 you have to go all the way back to 1929 for a non-Tory victory, in the form of Liberal John Pybus – who later retained his seat as a National Liberal. What’s more, technically you have to go back a full century for the last time a Conservative government was elected nationally, but a non-Tory was elected locally (Albert Hillary that time).
What this means is that a rare event could happen next year. While this blog inevitably focuses on past history, if future history is offered up, then it will be greatly accepted. So, let us consider the potential of Harwich returning a Labour MP next time round, using 1997 as a reference point. Let’s look at the circumstances surrounding 1997, to see what would be the most applicable next GE.
Firstly, and most importantly, in 1997 the general public was disillusioned by the Tories on a national scale. As implied earlier, in the modern landscape the people of Harwich will always vote in the Conservative candidate under a Conservative government and, in the case of 2005, even under another government. General malaise has to set in.
This is certainly the case today. Looking at the excellent ElectionMapsUK’s Poll Tracker, the Tories have been polling at under 30% for a year straight. This is significant as in 1997 they received 30.7% of the national vote. Polls are not an exact science – they reflect the mood if an election was held that day, not in the future – but this piece of the puzzle is definitely in place.
Next, and I may be putting a little too much weight on this, there was a viable alternative for prospective Tory voters, in the shape of the Referendum Party. I have previosuly discussed their effect in Harwich, but in short, they were more successful – both in terms of raw votes and vote share – in Harwich than any other constituency, and only a quarter of their voters would have had to vote Tory for Iain Sproat to have retained his seat.
Of course, there has to be a clear-cut Tory -> Alternative channel for this to be relevant. In 2015, the Referendum Party’s popular cousin, UKIP, reached their peak, but their angle was a little different. Aiming to be the party of the working class rather than simply anti-EU, they picked up a lot of prospective Labour voters – anecdotally, “Labour or UKIP” was a common refrain at the time.
So what of next time? At the start of the year, Richard Tice, leader of Reform UK, announced his party would be standing in every seat, giving a “110%, cast-iron guarantee” that would include current Tory seats. While Reform are effectively UKIP’s successor, with the EU no longer a primary issue the division is a little more blurred. It seems as though they would attract former Tories rather than former Labour voters, but that may depend on their manifesto. It may also depend on whether a party such as Rejoin EU will stand in Harwich, as they would push that division further.
One other scale-tipper, though I am of course loathe to massage any one person’s ego, was the standing of a well-known local candidate in the form of Ivan Henderson. In any walk of life, brand-name recognition is important, and, as long as it’s not for negative reasons, being the recipient of “I know that one” on the ballot slip does make a difference.
Post-Henderson, Labour have put forward four different candidates for the last four GEs. Admittedly, this may have been the reverse of the “parachute into a safe seat” effect, where continuity is less important when there is little hope of regaining the seat, but this will have been a factor nonetheless; Labour’s selection this time round will make a difference. This has also coincided with the new “Harwich and North Essex” constituency, a merger of Harwich with North Essex, which rather makes it harder for any candidate to be known constituency-wide.
In fact, now is as good a time as any to address this, given its significance. Ahead of the 2010 GE, the two constituencies were merged, not only making the resulting area a fair bit broader, but it also cut off Clacton, a major contributor to the Referendum Party’s relative success in 1997. Not only that, but ahead of the next GE, the boundary of the constituency has been completely altered – again, looking at ElectionMapsUK’s site, it is now more of a slimline T-shape, incorporating part of Colchester.
With this, we enter a great unknown. Traditionally – to any lawyers reading this, I am not implying anything of the sort – boundaries are altered to suit the current government, so, as some might suggest, the Tory safe seat of H&NE would have given part of itself to other constituencies where the seat is perhaps not so safe, thereby creating a stronger structure overall. This would therefore mean if the safe seat became unsafe due to an aforesaid national malaise, it could have an impact on the result of the next election.
This is one element unique to the next GE. For another, we must look to the present incumbent, Sir Bernard Jenkin. The sole occupier of the H&NE seat, his throne has only become sturdier over time, in terms of vote share, breaking the 60% barrier last time round.
However, there are signs this may be about to crumble. As a consequence of the Partygate scandal, many Boris Johnson loyalists consider Jenkin to be a traitor, with some even suggesting he was siding with Labour just to spite Johnson. Now, Tories tend to be fiercely loyal to their party, and will hold their noses to keep out Labour if required, but this may be enough to put several off, particularly if a party such as Reform comes along to gather them up.
These are, as Donald Rumsfeld would have said, two ‘known unknowns’. Both would, in theory, contribute to a Labour victory, but by how much is pure speculation, and indeed a 20k majority is a difficult thing to shake off.
There are also potentialities that would harm the Labour cause. The left of the party has been ‘left’ in the dust, completely alienated, under the belief that there is nowhere else for them to go. The Green Party have only ever been minor in Harwich (they have only stood there since the merger, and never surpassed 5% in share, even including North Essex separately), but if they got their act together even to the tune of an additional 1k votes, that may make all the difference.
A convergence in polling is also likely closer to the GE itself, as tends to happen, with pro-Tory papers reaching top gear before purdah comes into play. There is also the “Shy Tory Effect”, that looming intangible. An extra 1% in national polls for the Conservatives counts for 1.5% in Harwich, to completely make a figure up, but you get the idea.
Future history, then. They say a week is a long time in politics, so by November there may be a major event that makes this ramble of a post largely redundant. If things mostly stay the same, though, we will be looking at the most closely-fought election in Harwich since 2005, regardless of the result.
Harwicensis 